Thanks for the post guest.
I would also point out the Nova episode from last night if anyone missed it. It talks about the changing global age demographics (Africa, only people under 25, Japan only people over 65, India growing at all ages, US holding steady).
The Nova episode plus this article makes me wonder how long we will be talking about China. There is a country right next door that has no two-child policy, is a fairly stable democracy, has a higher-educated population than China and is going to have 1.6 billion people soon. It’s called India.
I wonder how long will China remain the factory of the world when the Indians will work for less than the Chinese. Add that to the growing number of Indians who are managing people…proving to the hard-headed west that non-whites can run something and run it well.
Since China manufactures, and India programs and has call centres, it will certainly be interesting to see how these two titans will behave when they start competing directly in products.
Living in Canada, I also wonder if any of these new-tigers will quit while they are ahead. You see Canada grew strong as an exporter of natural resources. The problem is, unlike the US, they never developed further than that. Canada’s economy, in short, is oil and wood. The question is, will China stop at manufacturing? Will India stop at programng?
And now for something completely different, I recall an article on the pace of innovation posted by Steve Portigal on the Core blog. It talked about how the pace of technological development may have peaked 100 years ago, and will continue to decline from now on. At first, it may seem like a downer…but think of it another way. If you can’t get innovation cheap and easy, you will need to get it hard and expesive. That means, similar to US military projects, you will need alot of highly educated, working for long periods to develop something innovative. That might mean more jobs for innovative thinkers.
Lastly, alot of people have written government intervention off in the states. Look through history…whenever you are sure about the US, it changes. With King George II’s approval ratings falling faster than the greenback against the Euro, we may not have neo-libs or neo-cons running the show in 3-4 years. The only question is, who will be running it?