The Future of the automobile, a POV

Special Interest Areas transportation
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Lew: Think about this. LA is 469 sq. miles or 13 billion square feet. If you imagine that humans standing shoulder-to-shoulder would need 1.5 square feet of space, that means you could have the entire human population standing in LA.

Having said that, I think transportation is going to change. All over the world, as population density increases, people take to public transportation and walking. I think Americans are struggling with this concept because we aren’t used to it. There are only a few dense urban areas in the US where cars are such a headache as to be a detriment to lifestyle (Manhattan, for example). I went to school in Phoenix and they will struggle to fit 5 million there without a complete rethinking of the city. Already, it takes 2+ hours to drive across the city. If the extra population is spread thin, it will only increase that time (as well as congestion at the bottle necks of the highway system).

That’s why I’m very happy to live in a place that has already started the infrastructure of world class public transport and higher density living. It’s the future of our species.

mo-i: I’ve loved the VW 2-liter concepts. I loved the first Honda Insight and Smart also. I think personal transport like these can mesh with the needs of higher density living. I’m waiting for a really good concept of car-sharing & car pooling.

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Just me playing the devil’s advocate guys… . it’s easy to get all wet and squishy about automobiles, we love them, but a thorough discussion about “the future” of them needs to address the possibility that there isn’t one. Or at least not a future as we’ve grown to know it in the last fifty years.

The title of the post is “The future of the automobile”, not “The future of the personally owned automobile” so perhaps I’ve drifted off-topic a bit. But given the world economic situation as it stands now, and the predicted time that it will take to “get back to normal” it may take a bit longer that the twelve years I’m reading about; say, twenty-five or thirty (2041). The day of only the well-to-do and professionals owning private vehicles while everyone else either rents as needed or taking public transport may, probably will, return, especially in urban areas.

I believe that you are absolutely correct about mankind taking to foot, or the bus, as a transportation option; that was the point I was alluding to. The “new” livery stable already exists; Hertz, Avis, Enterprise, etc. Or perhaps the “auto industry” will morph toward the current Cuban model; keep what’s on the road running. Nothing wrong with that as far as I’m concerned, in fact I think it may be the most viable solution to the problem, and may open up markets for the return of “custom coach-builders”.

There isn’t too much quackery when it comes to humanities’ penchant for reproduction, and ninety years is far from “time indefinite” . The drastic increase in the number of us on the planet since the 1940’s (2.3B) is well documented and has trended closely with it’s predicted annual rise. Far more consistently that that of the “stock market”.

I got my driver’s license in 1967 (christ, I’m 60 already!). The Interstates were the way that they look in all of the old B&W images; lots of space between vehicles. As late as 1985 the roads here in San Luis Obispo county were much less crowded than they are today (the county doubled it’s population in one year of incredible growth). It’s not like driving in LA, but comparatively there is much more traffic; it takes more time to get from A to B, the infrastructure is becoming inadequate, and it just is not fun to drive anymore . That scenic drive up Highway 1 to Big Sur is, on any given day, a bumper-to-bumper parade of RVs and cars pulling trailers. How could it, or any other highway, possibly be less crowded than in 2100, especially it private automobile ownership continues at the rate it is currently? Remember all of those “former” Third World countries, the ones whose citizens are clamoring for a Buick?

The new London City Bus is exciting, almost as exciting as the new taxi concepts that are floating around… [yawn] Car sharing… . . mmmmm, only if your fifteen year old daughter is excluded from our “timeshare-partnership”.

Simply put, If it isn’t fun to drive anymore, why do it?" What impact will that have on new car sales?

p.s. Jaguar SS100 [drool]

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@ Ray
Doesn’t human ingenuity find amazing solutions? The new VW is not a 2 litre, but a 0.9L car. They say it
comes to market in 2013. And I’d love to purchase one for local commute as I was allready preregistered for
the original Smart car. Sadly it didn’t deliver on fuel efficiency.
*
There have been the craziest forms of public transport that were created when not everyone could afford
a car. Like the hanging train in Wuppertal f.e. It spans a river in a narrow valley:
*

670×503 140 KB

This was originally conceived because the streets in the valley collapsed under the increasing traffic
of horse carriages and cars. (Horse manure was a major problem, that is totally forgotten today.)

One solution for the future should be car sharing. There was a large station near our home for 10
years and its developement was funded by the EU, but last year it was sold to “Deutsche Bahn”
(public railroads), obviously they have no intention of really getting it of the ground.
Mercedes Benz had projects running as well, they stopped it, as we are "not ripe " for that new
business model. Perhaps their stock holders (Kuwait) weren’t ?

I am very critical of (shared) public transport for many reasons, though:

  • neglect (why should I care about an item that I do not own. (see public schools, trains, etc.)
  • inflexibility (the bus never came when I stood in snowy rain as a student.)
  • no emotional appeal (not sexy)
  • no extended expression of your “personality”

So for me sensible private transport is the route to go. And I am desparately waiting for the future
to arrive, finally.

@ Lew: Traffic has doubled here, too. But within 10 years, not one… The density is now 3 times that
of 1980. But I wouldn’t expect it to rise anymore. New Biking roads are build right now. And the number
of cars per household is shrinking for the first time, as is the percentage of teenagers obtaining a driving
licence. So I am sure the “car” will change. But I’d doubt it to go away. And I refuse to share your pessimistic
view. When thinking about the future there were always scenarios of extinction. Most antique cultures shared
that fear. It’s in our nature, but shouldn’t block our vision.

mo-i

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Sorry to bum you out Martin. I’m not really as gloomy-and-doomy as my post implied. As I said, just playing devil’s advocate. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

And I certainly share you views and criticisms of “public transportation”.

And neither do I expect the “car” to go away. On the way down to the shop this afternoon I was trying to conjure up the emotion of being all proud and excited about riding in the newest, latest, greatest, propane-powered city bus … it didn’t work. And I dont’ think I could get at all switched on over being a passenger in new XYZ taxi either.

So for me sensible private transport is the route to go. And I am desparately waiting for the future
to arrive, finally.

Like perhaps, the 1967 Honda N360 ( 1,120 pound, 354cc) or the concurrently developed (for export) N600 (599cc).

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Lew, you are right, the post is about the future of the automobile, not of ownership specifically. I remember reading that there are 2+ cars per average household in LA, and I wonder if that will change? Access to an automobile via things like zip car has never been easier. I have no doubt, even though I love cars, if I did not own both of mine outright, I would most likely get rid of them and just get zip car… or get rid of one… but both are paid, and run well, so no reason to… just got some new shocks on the TT… taking it for a ride through wine country tomorrow (it’s 70 degrees here)… (glad I did sell it or trade it in)

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yo: In other words, the car of the future will also be the car of the past.

Yo, at least this holds true for yourself and your colleague. Glad to hear you enjoy having
kept the TT!

And it is true for many fellow gearheads arround the globe. You know, that I store two classic
cars aswell. And they came from manufacturers, who care for that old stock and help enthusiasts
keeping them on the road (BMW and Mercedes). This excellent care for the rolling stock is res-
ponsible for Mercedes Benz taking 50% !!! market share amongst the cars with “H” = historic licence
over here. It freaks out the Alfa or Citroen crowd, but it’s not the fault of Benz owners, that the Italians
and French didn’t get “it” till now. (Volvo had a similar programm, but axed it during Ford tenure.)

yo: the TT… taking it for a ride through wine country tomorrow (it’s 70 degrees here).

and I wish we all could be Californians…hum, hum, hum…

Sentences like that may be the reason for Lew complaining about the conquestion of highway 101 and
the population density at the pacific coast. We still have chilly freezing temperatures over here and
salt spray on the roads. :unamused:

Lmo: Sorry to bum you out Martin. I’m not really as gloomy-and-doomy as my post implied. As I said, just playing devil’s advocate. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

No offence taken, glad to see you have won your humor back! Perhaps those new environment saving busses should
offer some more bling to their passengers? An I-tune only bus passengers can get? A Swarowski customer card?
(kiddin…)

Honda N360: history is repeating itself, but that is just to gain momentum for some revolutionary breakthroughs.

Have a nice Sunday everyone, due to the wheather I’ll stay in the workshop today.

mo-i

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Sentences like that may be the reason for Lew complaining about the conquestion of highway 101 and
the population density at the pacific coast.

M, just a little geographic correction. Highway 101 is the “modern” replacement of the old “PHC” (Pacific Coast Highway) which is also know as Highway 1. The 101 is also known in various parts of the state as “The Freeway”, although not all of it is limited access.

The 101 absorbed many sections of roadbed originally graded for Highway 1. But thankfully, not all. This is the “… scenic drive up Highway 1 to Big Sur [which] is, on any given day, a bumper-to-bumper parade of RVs and cars pulling trailers” that I was whining about; 115 miles [180K] of of some of the most amazing 2-lane motorcycling asphalt on the planet … except for that RV and trailer thing :wink:

Hwy1.JPG
Hwy1.JPG800×552 119 KB

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Despite soaking up every episode of “Riptide”, “The fall guy”, “Hart to Hart” as a teenager I still get it wrong.
*perhaps some day I’ll see the golden coast myself…"

mo-i

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Lew: I love the old Honda N600. I lusted for one in high school that was at a nearby used car lot. Last time I was in FL, it was still there. Poor thing has rotted to nearly nothing:(

PCH: I drove up highway 1 from Hearst Castle to San Jose (I think). It was evening, rained the entire way. I was in a Camaro (1992 V6 automatic, I’m sad to say). I had to dodge boulders that had fallen in the road and the SUVs that would roar passed me! It was scary.

Public transport: I think people could be proud about public ownership. I think it will require a cultural shift. I’m very proud of the Montreal subway, although it was built long before I moved here and I barely ever use it. Every time I ride it, no matter the smell or other discomfort, I smile. Even when I did commute on it (6 years ago).

Car sharing: I think it will require a cultural shift. I’ve tried to loan my Focus to people in the last two summers and no one will take me up on it. :frowning:

I think to make car sharing really work it will require a cultural shift, new marketing, design and engineering models. Although, now that I’m thinking of it, maybe it won’t work.

I read a follow up report on Montreal’s bicycle-sharing scheme. 90% of users replaced public transport or walking with the bike. I think something like 50% replaced walking with the bikes. I can imagine a car sharing scheme might just replace people taking their own cars with the car-sharing car. That wouldn’t help anything…:confused:

Car upgrading: Something that continues to surprise me is that no one has developed a bolt-on hybrid system. GM pioneered a belt driven motor on their first gen hybrids. Why not do the same for an old Toyota Camry or BMW 325? Toss some batteries in the trunk and add a start-stop system. I’m sure we could eek out another few mpg from existing cars.

30

I agree with what you are saying but with a couple of caveats.

First, reissue cars do exist, they are called kit cars. I can go buy a brand new 1965 AC Cobra with all modern amenities if I choose. Many classics have been made to kit cars and it is an excellent solution due to the limitations of manufacturing cars.

Also, realistically, mid-century furniture, All Stars and kit cars only relegated to a niche in today’s culture. If they did become more, my value as a designer would certainly diminish. Why would I be hired if a manufacturer can just copy from the past? Our culture, and the culture of the world for that matter, values innovation. Innovation hidden by the same old aesthetic has never added value in the history of civilization. I would not expect that to change in the future.

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I had to dodge boulders that had fallen in the road and the SUVs that would roar passed me! It was scary.

Ahh, but it was a good kind of scary, wasn’t’ it? Com’on, you loved it. :wink:

Carved out of rock and partially built on back-fill Hwy1 certainly has a propensity for destroying itself. It’s been known to be closed down for months on end, and there is virtually no east-west access to inland. After the heavy rains last month, I’m surprised it’s even open now.

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i was wondering if you were aware of daimlers car2go project http://www.car2go.com/
we had one of daimlers people as a lector some weeks ago and he said that it was up and running very succesful and ready to expand

greetings

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Yes I am. Thanks for the link anyway. Are you aware though, that this car sharing model was part
of the late Hayeks original vision for the Swatch car? Daimler just held it back for nearly 20 years.

mo-i

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@moi
thanks for the info, no i didn´t know that, guess the daimler guy forgot to tell this part of the project

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On a related note, a few of yesterday’s cars of tomorrow, video:

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Thanks yo…

Gordon Buehrig, whadda guy! Designer of the Cord 812 (among others, many others), including the…

1948 Tasco (prototype) seen in the clip; aluminum “fuselage”, fiberglass fenders, mag wheels.
currently housed at the Auburn Cord Dusenberg Museum

If you are ever anywhere near Auburn, Indiana, check out the Cord Auburn Dusenberg Museum

More…

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This idea made me think about the latest Best Buy commercial about the buy-back service of laptops and cell phones. The commercial is very funny, but seeing how products we design can be replaced so rapidly makes me feel sad as a designer.

As for building modularity into the design of cars, I have mixed feelings about that model. While I like the idea of being able to service older cars, the modular design could prohibit manufactures to optimize their designs, for that particular generation. Maybe the simplest thing to do is force the car makers to carry the parts for extended period, in 30+ year range?

One company that I see balancing the new and the old well is Nikon, with their common lens mount. Older optics still works well, even on new bodies.

Mark’s Z is beautiful, btw.

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Thanks for the extra info Lew… definitely click more, some more gems in there… I like this quote in the link as well:
“Those not imbued with enthusiasm will, as a rule, avoid major mistakes but will also miss major accomplishments.” - Professor Dr. Wilhelm Wundt

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Knowing that Buehrig penned the 810/812, it’s kind of surprising to me that his 1948 Tasco didn’t sport “disappearing” headlamps as well. You can definitely see a bit of the Cord showing through ( I had to say that ) in the deep shape of the fenders and their overall proportion. Pretty hard to do with the articulated fender/wheel combination though.

That the greenhouse is a tad B-26ish isn’t too surprising considering it was planned as a product to utilize recently idled (end of WWII) Beechcraft Aircraft Company (or other manufacturer).