I sat on a plane the other day and filled out trends affecting my industry for each of the three SET categories (Societal, Economic, Technological) and noticed I came up pretty weak in the Economic column (not surprising.)
This had me thinking about the ideal research sources of research for all three.
For instance, with Technology, you can cruise blogs and read trade journals. For Society, you can check out Marketing books and numerous top 10 trend lists, and for Economics you can scan business magazines, talk to your own sales-force etc.
What are your favorite sources?
Anyone using SET or a similar method like the 5-force model?
Who, Guest? Thought leaders? Who are you suggesting we talk to? I’m not sure that primary research is always the best source of, say, technology trends.
I’m not clued in to the SET method, but I can see it might be easier for a designer to relate to Society (trends–affects users) and Technology (trends–affects product) more than Economics (are there really trends? and what does it affect, sales?)
In theory, economic indicators are best captured by the stock market. It’s a black art, though probably not much more than figuring short term social trends (eg the next fad). [Long term social trends like demographics are easy to spot.]
How useful stock market data is depends entirely on why you want economic trend data. Are consumers over-borrowed? Are technology companies losing venture capital? Will oil futures impact leisure activities? One could get proxy answers to such questions through stock data.
userinnovation: while my area of speciality is not design research, I’m going to attempt answering your question -more than Economics (are there really trends? and what does it affect, sales?)
I’ll take Thomas Friedman’s new book, The world is flat http://www.thomaslfriedman.com/worldisflat.htm as an example of articulating trends based on all three SET factors. In short, he examines the changes due to Technology (fiber optic cable, broadband access, internet usage), Society (changes in China, India) and Economics (offshoring, outsourcing, distributed work flows) leading to the what he calls Globalization 3.0 - empowering the the individual.
Right now, you’re in NZ, I’m in the US and others could be elsewhere in the world, discussing design theory. Whether it’s information, education or employment, you don’t need to leave NZ anymore to be part of it.
This is a trend which definitely impacts design, and the economic part is as integrated into the social and the technological part. Economics isn’t just about demand curves anymore. The economics of labor and mass production have moved manufacturing from the US to Asia - a major shift that impacts all areas of personal and professional life. The economics of Peak Oil, rising oil costs, war in the middle east all impact design of vehicles, transportation etc The economics of doing business cheaply led to offshoring call centers. And of the three, it’s Economics that leads to many of the trends in Technology and then Society.
Niti, you raise excellent points on the supply side, thank you. My allusion to questioning the presence of economic trends was based more looking at the short term. Economics is an area well known for being difficult to forecast in the short term, due to “noise” (randomness in consumer behavior) and the interaction of cyclical changes. These are distinguished from secular trends – trends that stay consistent over time.
There are enormous structural changes in global production, as you point out. I am wary, however, of some of the breathless predictions about the future. To cite one example, just a few years ago it was predicted that offshoring would replace US computer programmers with cheaper Indian ones. The reality is more complex, as Indian programmers do acquire more clients, some firms are shifting back to the US, because they can better serve their clients by being in close geographic proximity. I’ve even read of calls centers returning to the UK from India because customers complained that service had suffered, and companies felt it damaged their brand. So the supply side matters, yes, but cost doesn’t dictate everything either.
There are enormous structural changes in global production, as you point out. I am wary, however, of some of the breathless predictions about the future. To cite one example, just a few years ago it was predicted that offshoring would replace US computer programmers with cheaper Indian ones. The reality is more complex, as Indian programmers do acquire more clients, some firms are shifting back to the US, because they can better serve their clients by being in close geographic proximity. I’ve even read of calls centers returning to the UK from India because customers complained that service had suffered, and companies felt it damaged their brand. So the supply side matters, yes, but cost doesn’t dictate everything either.
userinnovation: I’m with you on this one - I’m wary too of breathless predictions, but also wholly aware that enormous structural changes have their own impact. And also of the importance of these changes. While they may seem long term, one cannot fall back on the old safe ways of thinking either. I know personally of a production and hosting facility that is doing very well in the bay area simply because the clients like being able to come in and see the servers, meet the professionals and rest secure that their information is both physically and virtually accessible THOUGH it may be cheaper to outsource to Bangalore. Not that Bangalore isn’t a nice spot to be outsourced to, imho, I have fond memories of undergrad life.
But what is important in all of these trends is that any job that can be broken down into replicable rules will not only be outsourced to a cheaper location in the short term, but be replaced by a software program in the long term. Ultimately, regardless of the nation, it will be the intellectual capital that will prevail. And with the increasing empowerment of the individual, there will be no boundaries to where the intellect is located and where the work.
CG: you are absolutely right in that trends are market specific. US healthcare differs greatly from most of the EU and Asia due to it’s structure.
Could you provide a little background on some of these systems that you have been describing? I’m always interested in learning about systematic methods of product development (e.g. TRIZ), but I’ve never come across the S.E.T method or the 5-Force system. I did a quick google search but couldn’t find solid info repositories. Are there clearinghouses of info you could link to?
The “7-Force” model (an enhancement of the traditional 5-force model) is articulated in the PDMA (Product Development Management Association) handbook on the “Fuzzy Front End.”