Ok…so when I start any project I alway research what is out there and what the market looks like, but I want to go further than that. I wanted to put the question out there on how others go about doing real trend reporting? I am talking fashion, textiles, toys, colors, etc… Other than taking pics of everything I see in the market and taking notes, how do the rest of you create trend reports that have meaning and add value to the business?
An agency i worked for (albeit advertising) always put in their observational trend reports:
a) the big idea and
b) how to make a buck out of it.
Ie: no point in saying ‘this is what’s happening’ when you should be saying ‘this is why it’s important’.
In my biz, they’re called benchmarks 
“Targets” of a benchmark:
- intended market segment
- similar/competitive products
- technology
- whatever your criteria are: color, shape, extensive use of polar fox fur …
What is, what has been, what has failed before and why.
The goal is to find out whats best suited for what application. Therefore, I use pictures that bring it to the point as well as hard, tabulated evaluation criteria.
Many of the picture-only trend reports that I’ve seen before lacked pictures that, as I said, bring it to the point. Everyone is able to do a google picture search for certain keywords. Thats not the level of qualified research I’d pay for, although it can lead to acceptable results if you chose your keywords well: affluent society http://www.google.de/images?hl=de&gbv=2&tbs=isch%3A1&sa=1&q=wohlstand%3Fgesellschaft&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=
I think it’s important to also skew your trending to the market you are going for. What’s hot on the high end may not work in mid-tier.
That being said, I don’t ignore the other markets, sometimes those things, especially in fashion tend to trickle down over time.
Part of being a good designer too is being able to forecast the trends. If you’re seeing something in the market now, then the questions is what’s next. What’s the next logical evolution of the product. A huge part of industrial design is not inventing a whole new thing, it’s also evolving what’s already out.
Yes, but that’s another story. For the near future, you’re good to go finding and analysing the pacesetters. In contrast, the far future consists of many possible scenarios and it’s hard to predict which one becomes reality. Even if you “bundle” the scanarios by the aspects that you mainly care for, two or three complete different ways may be left over. If not you’re lucky 
So, making products for the future does not mean taking the next logical step or doing some kind of linear interpolation.
It’s worked for Apple (I hate bringing up apple). Think about the product history of the ipod for instance, each new release seems to follow some sort of logical next step, an no one has been a bigger trend setter then them.
I agree, the far future is nearly impossible to predict, but are we not designing for the near future?
Trend reporting is something that can be very useful and powerful if done correctly, but also very dangerous if done wrong. I see both, quite often.
It is about both content, context and strategy.
Content is the what. It can be images from google, pics from the street, whatever. That is the “easy” part but often where designers go astray. It is only useful when in combo with the context and strategy.
Context is the when/where. All trends exist in time and space. What may be happening in one field (say cars or haute couture) may work its way to another in a certain time period. Knowing the when is just as important as knowing the what. If too soon, it will not be applicable, if too late, it will not be effective. Where is also key. What is happening in Japan now, or NYC, may make its way to the midwest at sometime or never. Again, context is key.
Strategy is the why. This is often the most misunderstood aspect of trend reporting. It’s not enough to say X is happening in Y area, so let’s put that in Z. There needs to be a rationale and strategy of why the trend may go from Y to Z, or why it is appropriate to apply it… is it to differentiate? follow the market? match a closely related product?
As designers we should all have some aspect and skill at predicting the near future. Having a good eye for this is just as key as having good form development skills, IMHO. Of course different industries have different applications of trends. Footwear or fashion may be one thing, but engineered safety products another.
R
This is not making innovative products (for the future), this is keeping “cashcows” in the portfolio as long as they generate profits. Apples innovative products had no direct antecessor.
both follow standard product introduction curves, basic, bit of tinsle, little more glitter, massive glitter, “new” product (ie bigger or smaller) repeat.
I would call that a retail report. For trend reporting, I’d look at much more than just the market.
I look at vintage - when something old suddenly looks fresh.
Colour and material proposals from tanneries, Lineapelle, Premier Vision and textile trend mags such as Textile View.
Trade Shows, if I see something that looks really new, then I know we’re onto something.
I also look at interiors, jewellery and clothing, i.e. not shoes.
Trend I do different for different clients. I often do moodboards to explain a trend, sometimes I will put it in the form of a report as many clients don’t really ‘get’ moodboards, they want it laid out in a factual way instead. Most of the buyers I work with like to see trends broken down into ‘key shapes’ - heels, lasts, ornaments, colours, leathers etc, to give them an overview.
Sometimes I include pages like one would see in fashion magazines, eg ‘trends going down’ ‘trends that are mainstream’, trends that are emerging’ so they can judge where their existing products are in that cycle.
I do go to seminars as well, trend forecasting companies are way out of my budget as a freelancer, but the seminars are affordable and you get to see their point of view. What I don’ t do, is lift trend from these companies exactly, I do my own.
I think that’s the interesting point about trend reports. Are you trying to be ‘on trend’ (i.e. doing what everyone else is doing at the same time as they are doing it), or are you trying to be trend leading (i.e. slightly ahead of the curve, so that a few months to a year later everyone else follows and you are lauded as having an inspirational product)? If you only look at trend reports from trend agencies, you can pretty much guarantee that you will be on-trend, but it is unlikely that you will be trend leading as there are a lot of other companies that will be looking at them too. I think which you want to be will depend a lot on who you are targeting, as mrtwills said earlier, but I’ve found that it is usually pretty clear if you can define that audience early on.
Sometimes the most interesting trends can be the macro trends that it is surprisingly easy to forget as a designer when it is so easy to get absorbed in micro design trends. For example, what is happening in the economy? How is that affecting the way that people spend their money? Is it affecting the way that they view certain types of products? What about the way they work?
I think that’s the interesting point about trend reports. Are you trying to be ‘on trend’ (i.e. doing what everyone else is doing at the same time as they are doing it), or are you trying to be trend leading (i.e. slightly ahead of the curve, so that a few months to a year later everyone else follows and you are lauded as having an inspirational product)?
Depends on the client - they’re all different.
If you only look at trend reports from trend agencies, you can pretty much guarantee that you will be on-trend, but it is unlikely that you will be trend leading as there are a lot of other companies that will be looking at them too.
You are quite right and you’ve identified a problem with relying on trend agencies. I use them more as affirmation of trends because they seldom tell me something I hadn’t already noticed. When I graduated WGSN didn’t exist, one had to learn to do ones own forecasting, you weren’t spoon fed. I am very grateful for this and also working as a designer for a cutting edge footwear retailer in the nineties where our boss would not pay for trend forecasting.
A recruiter who interviewed me last summer asked me, ‘where do you get your trends from because all the new freelancers ask me the same question, they panic because they can’t afford WGSN and they don’t know how to trend forecast.’ I didn’t realise this was such a problem?
Ironically in 2011 I don’t think we could be better placed to do our own trends, we have more information at our fingertips that ever before. I can see what the street fashion is in Tokyo without using WGSN and without getting on a plane and flying over there and ebay is a Godsend for vintage research.
Part of being a good designer too is being able to forecast the trends. If you’re seeing something in the market now, then the questions is what’s next. What’s the next logical evolution of the product. A huge part of industrial design is not inventing a whole new thing, it’s also evolving what’s already out.
Part of being a good designer is being able to understand trends, not forcasting them.
Strategy is the why. This is often the most misunderstood aspect of trend reporting. It’s not enough to say X is happening in Y area, so let’s put that in Z. There needs to be a rationale and strategy of why the trend may go from Y to Z, or why it is appropriate to apply it… is it to differentiate? follow the market? match a closely related product?
This is really the message I was getting at or looking for here. As most of you know I work on seasonal candy packaging. Now that may sound like there is not much need for cross category trend work here, but in actuality it is the opposite. If you look at each season (Christmas, Valentines Day, Easter, and Halloween) they all have their unique areas where outside trends greatly influence them.
Christmas is deeply rooted in traditions. Symbols such as Santa, stockings, wreaths, trees, etc… influence your imagery and structure. But on the other hand it is also the season when all the new toys are introduced, the hot time for shopping, fashionable clothes, and when store displays become grand and over the top. With this new colors are introduced and those traditional icons start to have contemporary twists to them.
Valentines is the season of love. This is greatly influenced by pattern trends as well as what is “hip” and in with the younger crowd. Every 13 year old boy wants to make sure he buys his girlfriend the coolest valentines gift out there. The colors never change, but the style does.
My point is that I do understand seasonal and packaging trends and have done a pretty good job putting those to use. I am intrenched in them every day. I also through observation can put together moodboards on what next Christmas may look like, but I want to go further than that. I am looking for how do I get those other cross category trends that are trickling down to basic things like a Chocolate heart box?
Part of being a good designer is being able to understand trends, not forcast them.
It might be the case in packaging, but if you worked for say, TopShop as a fashion designer, it would be crucial to be able to forecast. Ok, you would not be expected to do this on your own, it would be working as a team, but the fast fashion companies I’ve worked for expected me to come up with my own forecasts.
This is my point. It is done in a team. Also it is done in your category. Like I mentioned I have no problem with in category trending. I feel we all should have to be able to do that. I too with enough exposure to shoe and fashion could predict and forecast those. I am looking for how do you start to map those cross category trends that start to influence your category.
Edit: I would also mention that this seems to be a ton of work that as a corporate designer with a limited staff, so does anyone recommend any good trend forcasters.
Does the packaging your working on really use trends as discussed in a strategic way? I can’t think of much I’ve seen aside from very superficial applications. Given so much of it is as you describe the same old thing (heart shaped boxes and all), are trends and forecasting relevant? Not being condescending but really want to know the approach. Got some examples to perhaps give us a better idea? Can’t say I’ve ever bought Xmas or Valentines day chocolates, so it’s a bit out of my area of familiarity…
Also,perhaps it’s the right time to discuss the difference between fashion and trends…?
R
To me the trend in valentine’s day, halloween and co. is that more and more people realize that these “occasions” in fact are industry-initiated rip-offs 
What does this mean to the packaging designer (and the whole chocolate industry)? The question is not only how the packaging has to look like next year but will the “holy grails” still work or are they needed at all. Maybe redesigning the “regular” all-year-products or their packaging would also have a significant impact.
Example (might be old or completely different in the US or elsewhere, it’s about illustrating the principle): a trend that I appreciate is the off-season selling of christmas style pastry in a non-christmas style packaging. This trend was induced by starting to sell that christmas stuff in late august → people buy it then and eat it then → so they could probably sell it all year long.
Fashion: This summer everyone will be wearing garments or clothing with fruit printed all over them.
Trend: I think that luxury is going to be the new eco fashion. Instead of making throwaway fashion in recyclable materials, we will spend more money on understated well made accessories, we will spend more, buy less and actually get these things repaired.
I’d say trends tend to evolve over time, the eco thing has been going for over a decade now, but our attitude to it over time has changed.
Now that you say it… I always wanted to get myself a Hawaiian shirt
[Hmmmm, these Easter-style chocolates are delicious. If I could only buy them all year long ]
It is a bit crazy how much sooner and sooner the holiday stuff gets pulled out. Xmas comes the day after Halloween. Valentines comes the day after Xmas or New Year, Easter comes the day after Valentines.
I do find it really funny how one day (dec 24.) xmas chocolates are full price and dec. 26 they are 80% off… that must be an interesting problem to solve from a packaging and marketing standpoint.
How about this (if you do this and make money at least gimme a shout out)? - packaging with 5 layers of graphics on stickers? easter over valentines day over xmas over halloween. Just requires the guys in the store to peel back the label for the next holiday Makes no bones about the fact that consumers are suckers for on-theme stuff and will buy the same stuff in a different package for a different price…
Or maybe just packs with e-ink displays and an RF receiver. You can change the packaging remotely… (oooo, that’s good. wait forget that. lemme go to the patent office)!
R