I think there are headwinds and tailwinds. People like Trump are certainly headwinds, however he is not omnipotent.
Some tailwinds:
- The Paris Accords continue. At least from what I’ve read, most other signatories have decided to continue on their plans to cut emissions with or without the US.
- It takes a long time for many of these regulations to take effect. Therefore, business has been planning to follow the previous regulations for years now. It’s too late for them to change course now. Moreover, with the uncertainty of a 2020 election result, it’s likely that companies will continue to plan for a return to the Obama regulations in the near future.
- Carbon taxes are being adopted and more widely supported. For example, my home province has had one for a decade now. These taxes are having an effect on behaviour and will continue to shape market outcomes for years to come.
I’ll try to think of some more over coffee later.