Google's modular phone

@bcpid I don’t disagree with the theme of what you are saying, but I think you are confusing a commodity with a mature product category.

A mature product category is one where the function and form factor is pretty defined, but there is a large spectrum of price between the commodity market segment and the premium market segment. The commodity end of the market fights on price to feature ratio while the premium segment competes on status and perceived quality.

A commodity dominated market is one where the commodity segment has taken over the entire spectrum and products only compete on the price to feature ratio. For example, band aids. The price gap is quite small, there are a few more expensive options, but largely people are not brand loyal and just buy what they feel like at the moment when they are in the store. TV’s are largely going through this.

Phones are not quite a commodity but perhaps the argument could be made that they are becoming one. People typically do not pay anywhere near the full price. There is some loyalty based on ecosystem and brand (apple), and there are incremental advancements in camera quality, memory, screen resolution… but overall it is becoming more mature.

Cars are definitely not a commodity, the price spectrum is radically broad with the most expensive options costing 20x+ the entry level options. It was a very mature market, but you can smell the disruption ready to spring from the edges.

And that is a pretty common cycle. Some markets go from ground breaking, to mature, to commodity, to disruptive again as a new player comes in. Look at watches. Radical price, brand, design, and quality differentiation. Functionally all tell time. Very mature, to the point where many people stop wearing the commodity options while others invest more in the premium options as status… will the smart watch flip it upside down? It may. Hard to say yet. The connectivity between watch and phone needs to improve, the battery life needs to improve as well as the primary UX… if those things happen they probably will disrupt the target market a lot faster than smart glasses.